Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3666…3dd7 crypto 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-2%) realized −$44 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%83W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$9
other 7% −$23
economics 6% −$1
finance 3% +$5
culture 3% $0
world 2% −$13
politics 2% +$7
tech 1% −$1
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +10.7% +0.2% 43% 43% -1.9%
≤90d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 32% -7.5%
all 114 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 18% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 6% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 3% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses83 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)114 / 128
History coverage264d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $19 $14 −$4 (-24%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 75¢ 75¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 75¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 69¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 60¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $16 +$4 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 14 $7 −$4 -53%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Apr 14 $2 $0 +20%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 02 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 02 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +14%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Mar 26 $2 $0 +20%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $3 $0 +5%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $8 +$1 +15%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 09 $5 $0 -9%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +5%
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Feb 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Feb 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Feb 08 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 75¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? SELL SpaceX 88¢ $2 8d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $7 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 14d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 14d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 21d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 21d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 21d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $19 27d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $14 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.66 · official $43.41 · 306 history records