Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
36 0x3666…aab6 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,845 (+51%) realized +$11,750 · open −$905
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$10,960
14 days+$11,757
30 days+$12,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$11,979
politics 28% −$205
other 24% +$8
crypto 7% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +58.7% +43.6% 92% 4% +129.9%
≤30d 36 +50.1% +35.8% 89% 11% +66.0%
≤90d 43 +39.9% +26.6% 88% 9% +63.9%
all 43 +39.9% +26.6% 88% 9% +63.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 9% +63.9%
10% +14.5% 9% +48.2%
15% +3.4% 9% +33.9%
20% -6.7% 7% +20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +85% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$88 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.01 per $1 lost it wins $30.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$3,956
Realized+$11,750
Unrealized−$905
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)43 / 53
History coverage42d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 81¢ 97¢ $1,356 $1,619 +$263 (+19%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $886 $883 −$3 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 62¢ 20¢ $1,528 $504 −$1,024 (-67%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? Yes $462 $261 −$202 (-44%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 49¢ 86¢ $146 $256 +$111 (+76%)
Will Trump's remarks not air? No 99¢ 98¢ $178 $176 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $111 $77 −$34 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Morty" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $184 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $296 +$1 +0%
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $213 +$1 +1%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $179 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $175 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $281 +$1 +0%
Will anyone say "Weapon" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $139 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Hair" or "Hairy" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Dream" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $129 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E5 S9 Jun 22 $159 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Pickle" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $184 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $240 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $263 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $228 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $202 $0 +0%
Will "Squeaky" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Jun 22 $754 +$1 +0%
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 21 $161 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $205 −$171 -83%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 20 $245 −$169 -69%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $696 +$11,208 +1611%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,534 +$84 +6%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 17 $6 +$10 +157%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 15 $208 −$33 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2,035 +$21 +1%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $34 −$29 -86%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,305 +$829 +36%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $692 +$1 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $690 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,573 +$5 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $395 +$957 +242%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $93 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $125 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 23, 2026? May 21 $36 −$35 -96%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 17 $121 +$3 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 13 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 43m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $101 49m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $763 52m
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $52 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $128 1h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $886 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $69 1h
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 99¢ $20 47h
Will anyone say "Morty" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $210 2d
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $296 2d
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $179 2d
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $175 2d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $129 2d
Will anyone say "Dream" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $130 2d
Will anyone say "Weapon" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $139 2d
Will anyone say "Hair" or "Hairy" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $119 2d
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $167 2d
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E5 S9 BUY No 100¢ $159 2d
Will anyone say "Pickle" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 100¢ $184 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $224 2d
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $240 2d
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $228 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,956.15 · official $3,952.81 (match) · 167 history records