Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3665…f1e3 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+14%) realized +$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 60% -3.2%
≤30d 40 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 60% -3.2%
≤90d 40 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 60% -3.2%
all 40 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 60% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 60% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 60% -12.5%
15% -22.6% 58% -20.9%
20% -30.2% 58% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 67 history records