Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3663…3886
sports · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$529 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$526 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized−$526
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage33d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 6 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$161
14 days−$584
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Emma Raducanu 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Radu Mihai Papoe 88¢ 64¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus Savannah Broadus 57¢ 78¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Alexander Shevchenko 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Bublik 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Sara Saito 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Mai Hontama 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$45 +89%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $99 −$96 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $8 −$8 -93%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $40 −$6 -15%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $30 −$2 -6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $30 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,233 −$166 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $960 −$260 -27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 +$3 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $405 −$25 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $103 +$7 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $300 +$22 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $200 +$31 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $200 +$36 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $204 +$72 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $100 −$54 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 20 $106 −$95 -89%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$60 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$445
finance 9% −$2
world 9% +$2
tech 2% −$181
sports 2% +$32
other 2% +$63
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros BUY Radu Mihai Papoe 88¢ $25 1h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 80¢ $20 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alexander Shevchenko 60¢ $10 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 57¢ $10 1h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $10 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 57¢ $10 1h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 80¢ $10 7h
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Ikumi Yamazaki 55¢ $10 7h
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 60¢ $10 7h
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 64¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $96 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 63¢ $18 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $18 20h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 69¢ $22 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 42¢ $29 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 44¢ $36 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $34 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $28 20h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $28 20h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.0% -42.1% 22% 17% -41.5%
≤30d 31 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 29% -23.9%
≤90d 31 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 29% -23.9%
all 31 -23.5% -30.8% 39% 29% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -23.9%
10% -37.4% 19% -31.1%
15% -43.5% 16% -37.8%
20% -49.0% 10% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.72 · official $81.72 (match) · 102 history records