trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 75% | 25% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 75% | 25% | -11.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -15.6% | -23.7% | 69% | 15% | -14.3% |
| all | 16 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 69% | 12% | -14.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.1% | 12% | -14.0% |
| 10% | -28.7% | 0% | -22.2% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 0% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 0% | -36.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? | Yes | 85¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | $9 | $9 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 76¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+16%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-68%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? | Apr 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 08 | $8 | −$5 | -59% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Apr 05 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Artemis II launch by April 30? | Apr 02 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Apr 01 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Apr 01 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Artemis II launch by March 31? | Apr 01 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 202 | Mar 20 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 17 | $6 | −$1 | -10% |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | Mar 16 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 14, 2026? | Mar 16 | $5 | $0 | +1% |