Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x365c…495c world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1
other 18% $0
sports 11% −$26
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.8%
all 26 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 4% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 4% -12.8%
10% -22.2% 4% -21.2%
15% -29.7% 4% -28.8%
20% -36.6% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage482d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $54 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $153 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $7 $0 +3%
Flames vs. Flyers Mar 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $6 $0 -6%
Utah vs. UCF Mar 04 $34 +$25 +75%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $53 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $54 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $26 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $23 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $49 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $54 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $54 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $15 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records