Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x365a…596f politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$23
other 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 75 -3.2% -12.4% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage678d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Apr 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Paul lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Aleo airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Roaring Kitty jail in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $0 $0 -7%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Nov 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Nov 09 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 14h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 4d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 31d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 32d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 40d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 41d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $0 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $0 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 48d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 76d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 77d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? SELL No 100¢ $59 88d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? BUY No 100¢ $59 89d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 104d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 104d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 107d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 108d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 112d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 113d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 113d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 116d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 117d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 121d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records