Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3659…0451
other · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$462 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$356 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,206
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions82
Markets (closed)28 / 109
History coverage16d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day218.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 82 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$272
14 days+$356
30 days+$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 84¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $33 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $126 −$12 -9%
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $6 +$28 +454%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -10%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $79 −$7 -9%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$22 -71%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $16 +$34 +212%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $33 −$12 -36%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $31 +$50 +162%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -6%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $47 −$8 -16%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $51 −$5 -9%
Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamen Jun 10 $0 $0 +794%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $36 −$19 -54%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $38 −$20 -53%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $43 −$25 -59%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $200 +$250 +125%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 07 $4 +$18 +433%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $14 +$31 +224%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $125 +$36 +29%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +92%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Jun 03 $28 −$2 -5%
Perena FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 02 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$162
politics 17% +$518
tech 5% −$4
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 12m
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 13m
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14m
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 14m
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 15m
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 15m
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 17m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 19m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 43m
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 44m
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 48m
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 49m
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 55m
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 55m
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 55m
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 58m
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 58m
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 1h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 1h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 1h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $12 1h
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 1h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +92.2% +73.9% 36% 32% +16.9%
≤30d 28 +78.3% +61.3% 43% 36% +16.9%
≤90d 28 +78.3% +61.3% 43% 36% +16.9%
all 28 +78.3% +61.3% 43% 36% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover218.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.3% 36% +16.9%
10% ← realistic here +45.9% 36% +5.7%
15% +31.8% 32% -4.5%
20% +18.9% 32% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,205.70 · official $1,205.72 (match) · 3500 history records