Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x3659…be76 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$410 (-15%) realized −$408 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$116
sports 39% −$119
world 10% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 62% 62% -35.0%
≤30d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 62% 62% -35.0%
≤90d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 62% 62% -35.0%
all 8 -21.9% -29.3% 62% 62% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 62% -35.0%
10% -36.1% 38% -41.2%
15% -42.3% 12% -46.9%
20% -47.9% 0% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$253 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized−$408
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $275 $273 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $146 +$24 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $209 +$50 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $231 +$97 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $262 −$262 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $288 +$65 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $131 +$25 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $288 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $263 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $209 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $146 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $209 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $157 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $156 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $131 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $288 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $231 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $262 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $232 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $264 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.81 · official $872.81 (match) · 20 history records