Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

36 0x3659…2549 politics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$8 (-14%) realized +$0 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-43.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	+88.1%	+70.2%	100%	100%	+70.2%
all	3	-37.3%	-43.3%	33%	33%	-30.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.3%	33%	-30.0%
10%	-48.7%	33%	-36.7%
15%	-53.7%	33%	-42.8%
20%	-58.2%	33%	-48.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +88% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage144d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	40¢	$20	$12	−$8 (-40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	May 05	$15	+$13	+88%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026?	Jan 23	$6	−$6	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?	Jan 23	$15	−$15	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	41d
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$6	143d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	53¢	$15	143d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23?	BUY Up	64¢	$15	143d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.97 · official $11.97 (match) · 5 history records