Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x3656…6a0c other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$177 (-3%) realized −$143 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%73W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$87
14 days+$88
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$152
sports 26% −$114
world 2% +$52
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +44.0% +30.3% 67% 67% +16.0%
≤30d 35 +22.4% +10.7% 57% 57% +6.2%
≤90d 49 +25.1% +13.2% 59% 59% +0.4%
all 148 +11.8% +1.2% 49% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 47% -11.9%
10% -8.5% 44% -20.4%
15% -17.3% 41% -28.1%
20% -25.4% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses73 / 75
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage121d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 14¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $36 −$7 -20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$18 +90%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $31 +$47 +154%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$35 +70%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $15 +$18 +116%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $41 +$28 +70%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$16 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $40 −$19 -46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$26 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$44 +145%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $46 +$28 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$14 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$41 -80%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$27 +77%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$30 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$11 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $52 +$62 +119%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $5 +$8 +158%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $6 +$4 +70%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score May 08 $15 +$7 +48%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $21 −$16 -80%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $4 −$2 -42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $15 +$11 +73%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$8 -86%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$8 +233%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $17 +$14 +82%
England vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 34m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 34h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $33 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $22 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $40 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $75 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $46 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $65 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 12d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 12d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.84 · official $13.11 · 302 history records