Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3654…39b8 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,904 (-1%) realized −$1,906 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,300per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$76
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$96
other 41% −$366
sports 9% −$1,463
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +4.5% -5.4% 11% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 96 -11.9% -20.3% 5% 4% -10.8%
all 140 -5.0% -14.1% 18% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 9% -10.5%
10% -22.3% 9% -19.0%
15% -29.8% 6% -26.9%
20% -36.7% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,709) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$865
Realized−$1,906
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $454 $454 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $408 $410 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,910 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,910 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6,185 −$7 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $2,366 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,245 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,549 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,788 −$2 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $65 +$20 +31%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $935 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,138 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,805 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,230 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,681 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $515 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $1,969 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $705 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $48 +$65 +134%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $57 +$55 +97%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $4,112 −$5 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,192 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,034 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $3,176 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,907 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $631 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $632 3h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $672 21h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $673 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $609 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $610 27h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $706 45h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $707 47h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $659 47h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $660 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $650 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $651 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $573 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $574 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $454 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $887 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $888 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,046 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,047 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $928 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $929 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $898 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.64 · official $864.64 (match) · 471 history records