Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3653…ef74
weather · 1279 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 1279
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1117.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? No 71¢ 28¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+157%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+118%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? No 64¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? No 60¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? No 83¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? No 69¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? No 63¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? No 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 12 $1 $0 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 12 $0 $0 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$2
other 8% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $92 2m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 29¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 67°F or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $17 20m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $4 22m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 24m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $3 24m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $4 25m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $13 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $8 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.3% -21.6% 53% 47% +8.1%
≤30d 15 -13.3% -21.6% 53% 47% +8.1%
≤90d 15 -13.3% -21.6% 53% 47% +8.1%
all 15 -13.3% -21.6% 53% 47% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1117.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 47% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 33% -2.2%
15% -35.9% 33% -11.7%
20% -42.2% 33% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.64 · official $1.53 · 3500 history records