Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3652…c306 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$197 (+1%) realized +$189 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$204
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$178
tech 5% −$54
sports 3% −$5
world 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$100
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$17
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 26 -61.1% -64.8% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 31 -57.5% -61.5% 42% 0% -9.1%
all 73 -32.9% -39.2% 49% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 12% -8.8%
10% -45.1% 12% -17.6%
15% -50.4% 12% -25.5%
20% -55.2% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$1,184
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage712d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals No 99¢ 100¢ $1,172 $1,179 +$7 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 60¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mehdi Taremi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $6,640 +$72 +1%
Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ goals Jun 16 $6,637 +$72 +1%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals Jun 15 $4,905 +$53 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 0 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $695 +$8 +1%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Botond Nagy vs Yannik Kelm Jun 10 $694 +$14 +2%
Exact Score: Tajikistan 3 - 3 India? Jun 09 $307 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 3 Thailand? Jun 09 $687 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Denmark 3 - 3 Ukraine? Jun 08 $643 +$7 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Chile? Jun 07 $693 +$7 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on February 4? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $320? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 March 30-April 5? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 9? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 10? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Paddy Pimblett Staph Infection by Feb. 1st? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on March 4? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Melania" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on January 30? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 324? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Indonesia 3 - 3 Oman? Jun 06 $643 +$7 +1%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 26? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 24? Mar 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 23? Mar 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on March 18? Mar 23 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 17? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 13? Mar 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on March 6? Mar 10 $130 +$2 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on March 3? Mar 04 $140 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 2? Mar 03 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be 15% Mar 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on February 18? Feb 20 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Ryan Preece win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? Feb 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 13? Feb 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 11? Feb 13 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 on February 11? Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on February 10? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get betw Feb 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $146? Feb 09 $111 −$10 -9%
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of th Jan 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $54 +$157 +291%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21? Jan 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 global Netflix show thi Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,173 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6,640 37h
Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6,637 40h
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4,905 43h
Exact Score: Málaga CF 0 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $695 7d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Botond Nagy vs Yannik Kelm BUY Yannik Kelm 98¢ $694 7d
Exact Score: Tajikistan 3 - 3 India? BUY No 99¢ $307 7d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 3 Thailand? BUY No 98¢ $687 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10d
Exact Score: Denmark 3 - 3 Ukraine? BUY No 99¢ $643 10d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Chile? BUY No 99¢ $693 11d
Exact Score: Indonesia 3 - 3 Oman? BUY No 99¢ $643 12d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $4 71d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 March 30-April 5? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 72d
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 78d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 82d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 84d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 85d
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on March 18? BUY No 98¢ $150 90d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 17? BUY No 4¢ $4 91d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 95d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 10? BUY No 2¢ $4 98d
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on March 6? BUY No 98¢ $130 102d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on March 4? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 104d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $140 105d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 106d
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be 15% BUY No 99¢ $100 111d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $320? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 116d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on February 18? BUY No 99¢ $200 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,184.44 · official $1,184.44 (match) · 130 history records