Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3652…2c8b sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$512 (+7%) realized +$606 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$405
14 days+$277
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$375
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.6% +1.8% 60% 60% +13.3%
≤30d 55 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 53% -3.5%
≤90d 55 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 53% -3.5%
all 55 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 53% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 53% -3.5%
10% -13.7% 53% -12.7%
15% -22.0% 53% -21.1%
20% -29.6% 49% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$96 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage23d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 52¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $265 +$202 +76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 18 $16 +$13 +79%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $22 +$20 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $208 +$140 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $152 +$142 +93%
Reece James: 1+ assists Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $41 +$46 +114%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $157 −$155 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $254 +$239 +94%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $22 +$14 +65%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $151 +$57 +38%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $17 −$2 -13%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $41 +$66 +162%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $208 +$194 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $83 +$103 +124%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $234 +$228 +97%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 12 $213 −$5 -2%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 11 $65 −$65 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 10 $55 +$23 +42%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $203 +$182 +90%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 10 $254 −$250 -99%
Dart vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $11 +$13 +114%
Set Handicap: Linette (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Jun 09 $207 +$105 +51%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) Jun 09 $9 +$5 +57%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $254 −$250 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 08 $166 −$163 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $94 −$92 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 07 $4 +$3 +79%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $8 +$9 +109%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 07 $89 +$49 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $315 +$478 +152%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $86 −$85 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 05 $27 −$27 -98%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 05 $152 +$148 +97%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $807 −$27 -3%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 31 $61 +$75 +124%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 31 $102 +$103 +101%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $104 +$105 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $46 1h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $93 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $65 2h
Reece James: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $16 4d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $41 5d
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $157 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $152 5d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $265 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY Yes 55¢ $16 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $203 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $208 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $69 6d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ $41 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 46¢ $46 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $254 6d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 60¢ $22 6d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 52¢ $22 6d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $151 7d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $41 7d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 66¢ $33 7d
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $17 7d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 7d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 37¢ $41 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $83 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $208 10d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 70¢ $65 11d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi BUY Leandro Riedi 50¢ $213 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 12d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 52¢ $254 12d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 50¢ $25 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.62 · official $106.62 (match) · 93 history records