Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3650…5851 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,901 (+4%) realized +$7,003 · open −$102
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%121W / 19L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$419
14 days+$419
30 days−$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$8,297
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.9% -28.4% 75% 0% -4.8%
≤30d 24 -28.0% -34.8% 62% 8% -16.7%
≤90d 140 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 21% -5.3%
all 140 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 21% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 21% -5.3%
10% -19.2% 4% -14.3%
15% -27.0% 2% -22.6%
20% -34.2% 1% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$2,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$262 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$7,003
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses121 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions7
Markets (closed)140 / 147
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 69¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $1,701 +$22 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $1,112 +$35 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1,522 +$119 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,001 +$50 +5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $278 −$10 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $1,253 +$108 +9%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,443 +$105 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $906 −$800 -88%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $201 −$133 -66%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $301 +$23 +8%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $201 +$13 +7%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $301 +$25 +8%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Hans Rehberg vs Marvin Moeller Jun 04 $201 +$40 +20%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $501 +$37 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $501 +$51 +10%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $392 +$38 +10%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $201 +$21 +10%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $403 −$130 -32%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $401 +$55 +14%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $2,862 +$217 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Nicolai May 05 $500 +$14 +3%
Francavilla: Felix Gill vs Zdenek Kolar May 05 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Barbora Krejcikova vs Elsa Jacquemot May 05 $201 +$24 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Leolia May 05 $151 +$20 +13%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Oman May 05 $3,203 +$86 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $5,010 +$352 +7%
Francavilla: Jay Clarke vs Federico Arnaboldi May 04 $501 +$20 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Federica May 04 $101 −$100 -99%
La Bisbal: Caroline Werner vs Carlota Martinez Cirez May 03 $702 +$64 +9%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 03 $2,207 +$239 +11%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $2,207 +$265 +12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $1,203 +$121 +10%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman May 03 $4,008 +$296 +7%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $4,010 +$334 +8%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka May 02 $202 +$74 +37%
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs Rudolf Molleker May 01 $501 +$25 +5%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $2,002 +$58 +3%
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Nerman Fatic May 01 $1,001 +$29 +3%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges May 01 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates May 01 $3,506 +$194 +6%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio May 01 $501 +$25 +5%
Aix en Provence: Zizou Bergs vs Rinky Hijikata May 01 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Mauthausen: Miguel Damas vs Jaime Faria May 01 $3,003 +$87 +3%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Bolt May 01 $2,031 +$100 +5%
Mauthausen: Darwin Blanch vs Matthew William Donald May 01 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 69¢ $101 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 45¢ $52 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 86¢ $100 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 99¢ $1,501 8h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 98¢ $200 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $1,144 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 94¢ $200 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 98¢ $100 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 95¢ $100 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 95¢ $100 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $3 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $400 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $10 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 94¢ $200 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $1,641 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 98¢ $1,001 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 95¢ $501 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 21¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $1,052 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $1,001 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 31¢ $10 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 99¢ $362 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $1,360 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 97¢ $300 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.17 · official $208.18 (match) · 419 history records