Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x364f…562c
sports · 1432 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,736 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,283 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$2,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses687 / 958
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1645 / 1432
History coverage88d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 16 History 1645 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,213
7 days−$1,219
14 days−$1,282
30 days−$1,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 87¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 73¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 100¢ 71¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? No 90¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 11? Up 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Oh My God 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Keyd (BO3) - Aorus League Brazil Online Stage Group B Keyd 93¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 11? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Once Upon a Farm in 2025? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs Gentle Mates GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA P Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CAVA say "Acceleration" during earnings call? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bernie say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" 10+ times during CNN town ha Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brisbane International: Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India by November 30? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -104%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs 5Actors (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group D Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Jets vs. Sharks Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapo Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Elina Svitolina Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 5+ times during earnings call? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≥2.4% in December? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Honor of Kings: EDward Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro Le Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Endless Journey vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Exort Series Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Play Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 7+ times during the Brian Kilmeade Sh Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$603
other 13% −$144
world 8% −$21
crypto 8% +$49
weather 7% −$110
politics 6% −$53
finance 3% −$113
tech 2% −$57
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 44m
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 83¢ $2 47m
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? BUY No 90¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $2 50m
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $3 51m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 52m
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 52m
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $3 53m
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 54m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 54m
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 87¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 94¢ $3 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur SELL Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian BUY Yes 94¢ $3 19h
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur BUY Yes 99¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -70.8% -73.5% 15% 4% -69.0%
≤30d 734 -31.6% -38.1% 35% 12% -22.6%
≤90d 1645 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 13% -19.3%
all 1645 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 13% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 13% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 8% -27.1%
15% -38.2% 5% -34.1%
20% -44.3% 3% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.11 · official $64.58 (match) · 3500 history records