Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x364f…0c65 crypto 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$142 (+4%) realized +$141 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%107W / 82L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$14
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$160
other 32% −$25
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -13.2%
≤30d 85 +0.3% -9.3% 53% 53% -8.4%
≤90d 159 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 52% -14.6%
all 189 +3.4% -6.4% 57% 48% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 48% -6.0%
10% -15.4% 47% -15.0%
15% -23.6% 47% -23.2%
20% -31.1% 46% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses107 / 82
Open positions22
Markets (closed)189 / 211
History coverage228d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 51¢ 90¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.57 · official $33.57 (match) · 379 history records