Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x364e…dc9a crypto 652 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$324 (-6%) realized −$324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%393W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$349
weather 17% −$1
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 255 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 12% -11.1%
all 646 -0.7% -10.2% 61% 24% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 24% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 15% -23.1%
15% -26.6% 10% -30.5%
20% -33.8% 8% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses393 / 253
Open positions6
Markets (closed)646 / 652
History coverage96d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 40°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.92 · official $35.92 (match) · 3388 history records