Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x364b…4bb7 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-35%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$2
sports 36% −$180
other 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 4 -49.1% -53.9% 50% 0% -56.2%
all 5 -39.2% -45.0% 60% 0% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 0% -45.1%
10% -50.3% 0% -50.3%
15% -55.1% 0% -55.1%
20% -59.5% 0% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$90 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage99d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 21 $52 +$2 +3%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 12 $68 −$67 -98%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? Mar 24 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 19 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $52 34d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 40¢ $68 70d
Pelicans vs. Knicks BUY Pelicans 23¢ $113 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? BUY No 99¢ $112 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.07 · official $53.07 (match) · 9 history records