Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x364b…9e51 politics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$12
economics 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 1 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 6 +5.6% -4.5% 67% 33% -7.8%
all 7 +4.4% -5.6% 57% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 29% -8.2%
10% -14.6% 0% -17.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -30.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage136d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 36¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 63¢ 57¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $27 +$4 +15%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 19 $35 +$7 +19%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $182 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 14d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $57 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $61 37d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $118 39d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL No 20¢ $11 52d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $12 54d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $42 57d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 58d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 64d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $16 64d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $16 67d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 68d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $88 69d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $3 69d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $58 71d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $165 74d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 36¢ $18 75d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 8¢ $1 75d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $14 76d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 8¢ $2 78d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 8¢ $5 78d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 8¢ $6 80d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 84d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $103 84d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $158 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.07 · official $68.92 (match) · 182 history records