Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3649…8dd6 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$11
other 26% −$17
sports 25% −$18
crypto 8% +$1
world 5% −$2
economics 5% −$8
culture 4% $0
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 147 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 127
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage166d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $415 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $250 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $225 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $360 −$3 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $174 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $176 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $175 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $361 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $172 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $558 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $360 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $696 −$2 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $354 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 25 $170 +$7 +4%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $354 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $175 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $209 −$2 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $182 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $176 +$3 +2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $178 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 17 $185 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 16 $181 −$6 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 15 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 9h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 14d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 27d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 27d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 40d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 40d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 95¢ $62 81d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $62 82d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $55 82d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $55 83d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $57 83d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 84d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $46 84d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 84d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $53 84d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $53 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $45 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $45 85d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $42 85d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 85d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 85d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $52 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 86d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $178 86d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $179 86d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $177 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 572 history records