Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3648…fc70
sports · 81 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$175 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open −$102
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$439
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 36
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage101d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$94
14 days−$86
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 73¢ 100¢ $286 $390 +$105 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage ex-RUBY 70¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+42%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $362 +$18 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $409 −$2 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 09 $4 +$5 +125%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $814 −$30 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $33 +$10 +30%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$6 +291%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $5 +$3 +54%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $253 +$132 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $203 +$50 +25%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $25 +$18 +72%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $264 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 12 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-07? May 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 12 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs RED Canids (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Pla May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 12 $240 −$134 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $20 +$46 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $54 +$8 +15%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $353 +$69 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $325 −$302 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 07 $874 −$144 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 07 $471 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 07 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 07 $509 +$78 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 07 $371 +$149 +40%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua Mar 07 $210 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$210
crypto 34% −$378
other 7% −$12
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $6 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $7 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $90 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $192 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $102 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 60¢ $30 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 37¢ $16 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $40 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $10 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 98¢ $388 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 98¢ $389 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 85¢ $366 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 20¢ $8 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $352 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $10 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 92¢ $20 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 93¢ $20 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $28 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 15¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se SELL ex-RUBY 67¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se BUY ex-RUBY 70¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $398 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $258 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $165 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $303 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 36¢ $63 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.9% -23.9% 43% 29% -14.0%
≤30d 21 +10.4% -0.1% 57% 48% -5.4%
≤90d 36 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 36% -9.4%
all 79 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 47% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -10.4%
10% -21.0% 39% -19.0%
15% -28.7% 30% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.67 · official $437.99 (match) · 320 history records