Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

36 0x3648…ccbc crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$232 (+46%) realized +$232 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$80

7 days+$80

14 days+$168

30 days+$168

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+19.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+399.5%	+351.9%	100%	100%	+351.9%
≤30d	2	+337.8%	+296.1%	100%	100%	+283.3%
≤90d	3	+268.1%	+233.0%	100%	100%	+166.6%
all	22	+32.2%	+19.6%	59%	59%	+47.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.6%	59%	+47.4%
10%	+8.2%	55%	+33.3%
15%	-2.3%	50%	+20.5%
20%	-11.9%	32%	+8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +195% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +67% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$12 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$232

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage127d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$20	+$80	+400%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$32	+$88	+276%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	May 17	$101	+$131	+129%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Mar 06	$50	+$49	+98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Feb 22	$30	−$19	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$9	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Feb 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$5	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Feb 22	$10	−$10	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Feb 22	$10	−$6	-60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$5	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Feb 22	$15	−$15	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Feb 22	$20	−$10	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Feb 22	$15	+$2	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Feb 22	$20	+$16	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$4	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Feb 22	$60	−$7	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Feb 22	$20	−$20	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Feb 22	$20	−$8	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$12	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$3	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Feb 22	$10	+$5	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	SELL Paraguay	100¢	$100	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	20¢	$8	2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	20¢	$12	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	26¢	$32	9d
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	SELL Yes	71¢	$232	43d
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$101	115d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	SELL Yes	89¢	$99	115d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	BUY Yes	45¢	$50	118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$20	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Down	51¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$19	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$15	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Down	16¢	$4	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$15	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$15	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$13	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$17	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$15	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$24	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$10	127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$12	127d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records