Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3644…aa83 crypto 603 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-3%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%303W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$272
14 days−$2,038
30 days−$2,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$816
other 1% −$7
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 40% -30.0%
≤30d 195 -50.8% -55.5% 27% 23% -55.1%
≤90d 603 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 41% -17.2%
all 603 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 41% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 41% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 34% -25.1%
15% -33.9% 27% -32.4%
20% -40.3% 21% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses303 / 300
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)603 / 603
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 603 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$23 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$51 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$16 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $71 −$33 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$32 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$33 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$17 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$28 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $22 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $24 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records