Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3643…d645 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$294 (+4%) realized +$294 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$244
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$119
sports 31% +$119
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +10.5% -0.0% 55% 42% -2.7%
≤30d 38 +10.5% -0.0% 55% 42% -2.7%
≤90d 39 +10.2% -0.3% 54% 41% -7.2%
all 39 +10.2% -0.3% 54% 41% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 41% -7.2%
10% -9.8% 41% -16.1%
15% -18.6% 41% -24.2%
20% -26.5% 38% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$28 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage33d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$131 +65%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $17 +$23 +140%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $217 −$137 -63%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $451 +$19 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $31 +$18 +58%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 22 $16 −$12 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 22 $18 −$14 -79%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $21 −$13 -62%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $25 −$3 -13%
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open Jun 22 $501 +$33 +7%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $151 +$60 +40%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $15 −$1 -9%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$46 +152%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $30 +$30 +101%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $50 +$30 +58%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$14 +56%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $26 +$24 +90%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$95 +94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$31 -99%
Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $36 −$1 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $230 +$20 +9%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$18 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$15 +300%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $422 +$19 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $188 +$12 +6%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $11 +$11 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $28 −$11 -39%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $4,941 −$33 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 17¢ $26 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 21¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL Daria Kasatkina 54¢ $48 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 77¢ $151 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 33¢ $31 3h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 98¢ $217 3h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 86¢ $32 4h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Nick Kyrgios 13¢ $32 4h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 88¢ $358 4h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 15¢ $31 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $10 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $17 4h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL No $5 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes $4 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 83¢ $1 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 83¢ $65 13h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $30 13h
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 57¢ $25 13h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $40 34h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY Yes 94¢ $501 35h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $151 2d
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 71¢ $30 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $15 2d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 16¢ $14 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 48¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records