Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363e…92f8 world 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,935 (-19%) realized −$1,847 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%68W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$50
14 days−$93
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$1,419
politics 7% −$228
finance 5% −$209
other 5% −$8
crypto 3% −$84
sports 2% +$39
weather 1% −$29
tech 0% −$18
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +45.0% +31.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
≤30d 46 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 145 -28.2% -35.0% 43% 30% -29.9%
all 153 -26.3% -33.3% 44% 31% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 31% -27.0%
10% -39.7% 20% -34.0%
15% -45.5% 14% -40.4%
20% -50.8% 11% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$35 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$1,847
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses68 / 85
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)153 / 170
History coverage104d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $289 $211 −$78 (-27%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $8 +$5 (+221%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Yes $6 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Yes $6 $1 −$5 (-91%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $85 +$14 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 +$11 +97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$13 +317%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$19 +277%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$7 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $120 −$18 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $215 +$8 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $162 −$128 -79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 13 $34 +$21 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $155 −$76 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$42 -70%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $14 +$5 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $88 +$18 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $77 +$41 +53%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 08 $14 $0 -2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 06 $33 +$6 +18%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $80 +$13 +16%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $43 −$14 -33%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $44 −$6 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $97 +$34 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $41 −$41 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? May 31 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $50 −$32 -64%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $36 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $474 +$46 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $39 −$9 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $82 +$6 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $10 +$3 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $202 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $106 +$14 +13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? May 18 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 39m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $99 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $18 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $67 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.88 · official $364.89 (match) · 823 history records