Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x363e…928a
weather · 1116 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$55 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses702 / 340
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions74
Markets (closed)1042 / 1116
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 74 History 1042 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? No 90¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? No 77¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 83¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? No 74¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 82¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 78¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? No 82¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 88¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 91¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? No 91¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 84¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% −$7
other 8% −$18
sports 7% −$27
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $4 21m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 92¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL No 33¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 31% -9.0%
≤30d 809 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 26% -10.6%
≤90d 1042 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 25% -11.8%
all 1042 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 25% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 5% -20.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -28.0%
20% -33.8% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.15 · official $121.13 (match) · 3500 history records