Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363d…29f5 politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$9
sports 25% −$13
other 21% −$3
world 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 85 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage208d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $529 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $260 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $268 −$7 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $541 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $270 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $270 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $270 $0 +0%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $270 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $271 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $271 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $271 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $271 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $271 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $271 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $534 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $271 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $271 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $259 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $259 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $266 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 31 $266 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 31 $532 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $258 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $260 14h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $260 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $260 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $260 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $260 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 11d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $260 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $260 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $260 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $260 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $260 38d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $260 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $260 40d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $261 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $268 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $268 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $268 45d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $268 48d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $269 49d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 53d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 54d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 71d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 71d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $270 72d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $270 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records