Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363c…900d crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-35%) realized −$84 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$102
other 8% +$5
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.1% -4.9% 82% 52% -3.2%
≤30d 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 52% -42.0%
≤90d 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 52% -42.0%
all 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 52% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 52% -42.0%
10% -15.5% 39% -47.5%
15% -23.6% 22% -52.6%
20% -31.1% 13% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 55¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $114 −$101 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $4.00 · 163 history records