Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x363b…4cdb crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate62%106W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$6
other 23% −$2
sports 14% +$11
politics 10% −$2
tech 2% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 -0.2% -9.7% 73% 6% -9.5%
all 172 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -23.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -30.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses106 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage163d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 22 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 202 Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Noh Yeong-min win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 26 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 31 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or higher on May May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $123 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 29 $4 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 27 $2 +$4 +188%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will Maria Sakkari win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $136 $0 -0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 24 $3 +$5 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $131 $0 -0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Oceane Dodi May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Dayana Yastremska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of May 11 above $245? May 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? May 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $106 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 7? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 5? May 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of April 2 May 02 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 27d
Will Noh Yeong-min win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 28d
Will Amazon have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 202 BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $133 29d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 50¢ $4 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $144 31d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group BUY Virtus.pro 34¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 33d
Will Maria Sakkari win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 100¢ $136 33d
Will Maria Sakkari win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 100¢ $136 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $138 34d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 37¢ $3 34d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $140 37d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $131 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Oceane Dodi BUY Oceane Dodin 11¢ $1 37d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $131 37d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $130 37d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $130 37d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 39d
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 100¢ $94 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.52 · official $150.52 (match) · 345 history records