Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x3639…7667 world 55 markets active 4h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+13%) realized +$137 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$140
14 days+$114
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$103
other 20% −$2
sports 14% −$25
crypto 8% +$48
politics 4% +$8
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +69.1% +53.0% 67% 58% +30.9%
≤30d 39 +14.2% +3.3% 56% 41% +5.9%
≤90d 49 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 41% +1.9%
all 49 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 41% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 41% +1.9%
10% -11.2% 27% -7.8%
15% -19.7% 18% -16.7%
20% -27.6% 14% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage44d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $21 $28 +$6 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 25¢ 18¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $37 −$12 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $126 +$64 +51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$35 +180%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$43 +456%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $12 +$47 +392%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $39 +$4 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $60 −$28 -47%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +15%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$4 -39%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 -36%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $8 +$6 +74%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $13 +$4 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26 +$21 +82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $46 +$21 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 −$21 -34%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $20 −$15 -74%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $20 −$13 -64%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $13 +$26 +205%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 16 $20 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $11 −$10 -91%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $7 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $19 +$3 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $26 +$7 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $4 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 34¢ $15 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 31¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 25¢ $6 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $20 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $19 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.95 · official $108.95 (match) · 332 history records