Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x3635…1a4d crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,957 (+17%) realized +$6,701 · open −$2,744
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,439
7 days−$2,038
14 days−$5,022
30 days+$5,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$3,411
sports 6% −$654
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.6% -30.9% 35% 29% -44.0%
≤30d 60 +7.5% -2.8% 32% 30% +15.4%
≤90d 60 +7.5% -2.8% 32% 30% +15.4%
all 60 +7.5% -2.8% 32% 30% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 30% +15.4%
10% -12.1% 30% +4.4%
15% -20.6% 30% -5.7%
20% -28.4% 28% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$973 vs −$317 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$6,701
Unrealized−$2,744
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)60 / 68
History coverage14d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $573 $2 −$571 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $573 $2 −$571 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $373 $2 −$371 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $373 $1 −$372 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$37 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $319 +$906 +284%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $406 +$346 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $387 +$618 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $634 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $632 −$600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $423 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$198 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $200 −$188 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $183 −$174 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $251 +$517 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $571 −$571 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $607 −$575 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $503 +$604 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $423 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $278 −$263 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $735 −$698 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $313 +$645 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $420 −$399 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $298 −$282 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 03 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 03 $533 −$508 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $314 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 03 $315 +$658 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 02 $633 +$2,183 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $111 −$104 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $406 −$406 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $382 −$361 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $739 +$2,669 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $315 +$813 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $632 +$1,985 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $318 +$1,868 +587%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $636 −$600 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $582 −$550 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $66 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $67 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $29 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $455 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $770 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $213 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $225 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $752 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $315 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $406 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 175 history records