Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3635…a72d politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5
other 22% +$1
politics 19% −$20
economics 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 14% -11.5%
≤90d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 14% -11.5%
all 32 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 6% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -12.6%
10% -17.0% 3% -20.9%
15% -25.0% 3% -28.6%
20% -32.4% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage343d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $44 −$6 -13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $37 −$20 -52%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $38 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $20 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $24 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $8 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $23 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $23 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $47 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $45 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $45 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.86 · official $6.86 (match) · 114 history records