Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3634…0880 crypto 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-9%) realized −$551 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%123W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$660
sports 3% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 40% -7.0%
≤30d 239 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 35% -16.4%
≤90d 339 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 34% -20.5%
all 339 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 34% -20.5%
10% -27.4% 31% -28.2%
15% -34.4% 29% -35.1%
20% -40.9% 27% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$551
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses123 / 216
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 340
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Pakistan 58¢ 79¢ $169 $231 +$62 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$26 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$9 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$10 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$16 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$18 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$6 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 58¢ $101 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 58¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.50 · official $231.50 (match) · 880 history records