Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3633…a72b crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-16%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$37
other 29% −$1
sports 14% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.1% -37.7% 43% 43% -25.2%
≤30d 30 -26.3% -33.3% 40% 33% -24.9%
≤90d 30 -26.3% -33.3% 40% 33% -24.9%
all 30 -26.3% -33.3% 40% 33% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 33% -24.9%
10% -39.7% 27% -32.1%
15% -45.5% 27% -38.6%
20% -50.9% 17% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$5 -79%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$7 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$17 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 57¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $0 6d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $23 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 12¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 6d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 63¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.75 · official $39.75 (match) · 85 history records