Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3631…88a5 other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 21% −$20
politics 10% −$10
economics 6% −$9
culture 6% −$7
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% +$6
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage141d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $441 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $603 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $688 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $362 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $316 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $344 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $499 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $640 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $349 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $438 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $268 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 15m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 4h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $63 11h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 12h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $63 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 18h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 21h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 26h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $64 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 35h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 39h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 40h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 43h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.75 · official $62.75 (match) · 1440 history records