Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x3630…b2fc other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 82% −$14
politics 12% −$5
other 4% −$16
world 1% +$2
sports 1% −$12
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.4% +4.4% 17% 17% -2.1%
≤30d 20 +6.0% -4.1% 15% 10% -7.3%
≤90d 39 -5.0% -14.0% 15% 10% -12.0%
all 53 -3.8% -13.0% 15% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 6% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage596d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $9 +$9 +93%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $3 +$3 +129%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $21 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 28 $81 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $79 +$2 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $13,554 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $240 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 23h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 30h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $9 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $5 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.15 · official $33.15 (match) · 234 history records