Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3630…5581 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$511 (+3%) realized +$205 · open +$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate86%78W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 89 -5.7% -14.7% 85% 18% -9.4%
all 91 -5.3% -14.3% 86% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 19% -9.1%
10% -22.5% 10% -17.8%
15% -30.0% 3% -25.7%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$78 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$306
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses78 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage91d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 77¢ $465 $777 +$312 (+67%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $119 $113 −$6 (-5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 23 $88 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 03 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 29 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 29 $142 +$58 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 29 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 26 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 26 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 26 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 26 $340 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 26 $240 −$26 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 26 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 26 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 26 $600 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 26 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 25 $300 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $300 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 25 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 25 $278 +$68 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 25 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 25 $1,597 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 25 $1,581 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$72 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 25 $1,487 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $58 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $86 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 27d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $74 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $0 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $11 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $40 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $31 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $75 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $58 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $918.51 · official $918.53 (match) · 419 history records