Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
36 0x362e…a692 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$231 (+13%) realized +$269 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$63
14 days+$91
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$139
world 19% +$11
weather 12% +$12
sports 9% +$2
other 8% +$24
politics 6% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 38% -5.5%
≤30d 29 +15.0% +4.0% 55% 45% -3.1%
≤90d 29 +15.0% +4.0% 55% 45% -3.1%
all 36 +19.3% +8.0% 53% 44% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 44% -1.0%
10% -2.4% 42% -10.4%
15% -11.8% 31% -19.1%
20% -20.4% 28% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage202d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $326 +$11 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$65 +346%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $91 −$75 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$90 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$29 +93%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $29 +$26 +89%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $143 +$48 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $89 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $94 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$8 +181%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - December 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 15 $10 +$10 +92%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Nov 25 $9 +$44 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $130 26m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $72 34m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 56m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 4¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 13¢ $9 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 41¢ $9 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 53¢ $95 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $101 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $255 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.05 · official $134.66 · 122 history records