Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x362c…f753 sports 829 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,721 (-0%) realized −$1,721 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%803W / 29L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$1,851
14 days−$1,161
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,080
other 16% +$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -7.1% -16.0% 90% 4% -11.0%
≤30d 432 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 832 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 2% -9.8%
all 832 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,094) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$214 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,721
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses803 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)832 / 829
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$687
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 832 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,391 +$8 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,094 +$6 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $988 +$2 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,442 +$11 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,194 +$6 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$3 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $394 +$6 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,418 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,330 +$3 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $111 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4,917 +$169 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $677 +$33 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,743 +$37 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2,399 +$26 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,243 +$13 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,436 +$52 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,308 +$3 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $405 +$8 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,815 +$28 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,082 +$52 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $339 +$11 +3%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 −$26 -30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,107 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $392 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $307 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,807 +$18 +1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Jun 14 $967 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$187 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,883 +$41 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,336 +$67 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $815 +$106 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $176 +$22 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $197 +$6 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3,367 +$34 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $179 +$21 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $430 +$17 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $320 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $790 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $199 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $452 52m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $497 59m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $699 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $56 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $195 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $498 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $98 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $79 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $41 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $43 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $999 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $999 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $150 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $66 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $53 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $47 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records