Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3626…e168 sports 277 markets active 5d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$587 (+2%) realized +$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%174W / 103L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$40
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.9% -24.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 41% -5.0%
≤90d 277 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 44% -8.5%
all 277 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 44% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -8.5%
10% -22.0% 30% -17.2%
15% -29.6% 17% -25.2%
20% -36.5% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$51 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses174 / 103
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions0
Markets (closed)277 / 277
History coverage69d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 277 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $202 −$8 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $237 +$29 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$102 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $102 −$37 -36%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $51 +$88 +172%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $51 −$40 -79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $51 +$4 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $152 −$5 -3%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $101 +$59 +58%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $100 +$17 +17%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $71 −$27 -38%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $211 +$10 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $71 −$20 -28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $101 +$6 +6%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $50 +$17 +34%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO5) - Prime League 1st May 21 $101 +$34 +33%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $101 +$49 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $50 −$48 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $102 +$134 +132%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $101 −$33 -33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $102 +$26 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $151 −$150 -99%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual May 16 $69 +$21 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $101 +$13 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $101 +$44 +43%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 16 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 14 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $101 +$7 +7%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $51 +$12 +24%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Se May 12 $101 −$21 -21%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $101 +$22 +22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $101 −$37 -37%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $101 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $125 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 58¢ $59 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 56¢ $17 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 53¢ $49 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $101 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $102 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 58¢ $70 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 82¢ $101 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 1¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 30¢ $31 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 41¢ $31 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 40¢ $22 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 37¢ $158 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 24¢ $51 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 22¢ $51 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 13¢ $106 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 6¢ $51 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $51 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $203 11d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 37¢ $51 11d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $50 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 69¢ $50 11d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 21¢ $51 12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 15¢ $38 12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 20¢ $51 12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 12¢ $28 12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 21¢ $51 12d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 100¢ $139 19d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 36¢ $51 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 7¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 883 history records