Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3622…2866 other 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+7%) realized +$113 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%66W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$86
sports 29% +$181
crypto 3% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 43% -4.0%
≤30d 125 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 43% -4.0%
≤90d 125 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 43% -4.0%
all 125 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 43% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 43% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 34% -13.2%
15% -29.6% 27% -21.6%
20% -36.5% 20% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses66 / 59
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions38
Markets (closed)125 / 163
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 58¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 70¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 68¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 58¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 59¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal to win the second half? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 46¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $7 +$5 +67%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $52 +$5 +9%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$22 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +704%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +84%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 +$7 +65%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +163%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 17 $1 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +303%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $93 +$40 +44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 +$101 +76%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $21 +$21 +104%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$35 +199%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 30m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 30m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 31m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 39m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 26¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 64¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 65¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $5 8h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $5 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 68¢ $5 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $5 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $2 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes $1 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.23 · official $157.12 (match) · 359 history records