Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3621…9da2
weather · 180 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$440 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$388 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses61 / 116
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage35d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$12
14 days+$44
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 21? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$21 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$98 +629%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$23 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$63 +404%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$30 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $37 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 +$31 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$24 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$18 +351%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$12 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$39 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$11 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 +$52 +333%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$10 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 +$28 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$389
tech 2% +$6
crypto 1% −$12
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 13¢ $16 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 29h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 30h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 30h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? SELL Yes 91¢ $79 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $46 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 17¢ $16 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 33¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.7% +0.1% 27% 27% -3.4%
≤30d 154 +26.4% +14.4% 35% 34% +9.2%
≤90d 177 +23.9% +12.1% 34% 33% +8.7%
all 177 +23.9% +12.1% 34% 33% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 33% +8.7%
10% +1.4% 33% -1.7%
15% -8.4% 33% -11.2%
20% -17.4% 31% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.53 (match) · 412 history records