Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3621…3c9f crypto 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,457 (-8%) realized −$3,457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%100W / 115L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,749
7 days−$2,264
14 days−$3,606
30 days−$4,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,502
crypto 42% −$2,980
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 42% -25.0%
≤30d 215 -6.0% -15.0% 47% 46% -18.8%
≤90d 215 -6.0% -15.0% 47% 46% -18.8%
all 215 -6.0% -15.0% 47% 46% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 46% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 44% -26.6%
15% -30.5% 38% -33.7%
20% -37.3% 35% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$147 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$3,457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses100 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions2
Markets (closed)215 / 217
History coverage24d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ 38¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+7%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $205 −$65 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $43 −$23 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -54%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 19 $279 −$279 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 19 $298 −$298 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $302 +$92 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $129 +$218 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $250 +$120 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $514 +$374 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $509 −$509 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $509 +$332 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $486 −$486 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$56 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $240 +$179 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $323 −$311 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 16 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $412 +$323 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $237 +$166 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $363 +$338 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $240 +$215 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $230 +$143 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$153 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$58 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$81 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $368 +$387 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$36 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $391 +$276 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 40¢ $140 41m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? SELL No 25¢ $20 41m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 54¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 48¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 49¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 48¢ $8 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 49¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $2 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $394 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 13¢ $8 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 13¢ $15 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 13¢ $14 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $1 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $1 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $1 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $1 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $1 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $4 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.65 · official $20.81 · 1065 history records