Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3620…aa04 sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-8%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%189W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$7
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$37
other 15% +$2
culture 1% +$2
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +21.5% +9.9% 77% 61% +9.8%
≤30d 130 -5.2% -14.2% 58% 46% -13.6%
≤90d 266 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 47% -19.3%
all 313 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 50% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% -18.1%
10% -25.6% 40% -26.0%
15% -32.8% 29% -33.1%
20% -39.4% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses189 / 124
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions35
Markets (closed)313 / 348
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 84¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1 +$2 +180%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$2 +158%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 07 $1 +$4 +388%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 79¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 86¢ $1 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 1¢ $1 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 82¢ $1 45h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 93¢ $1 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $1 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.72 · official $35.74 (match) · 594 history records