Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3620…88fd crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-24%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 27% -25.5%
≤30d 28 -26.8% -33.7% 25% 25% -26.8%
≤90d 28 -26.8% -33.7% 25% 25% -26.8%
all 28 -26.8% -33.7% 25% 25% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 25% -26.8%
10% -40.1% 25% -33.8%
15% -45.9% 25% -40.2%
20% -51.2% 25% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records