Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x361d…065d crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-14%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$24
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -29.9% -36.6% 34% 32% -27.6%
≤30d 57 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 30% -28.9%
≤90d 57 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 30% -28.9%
all 57 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 30% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 30% -28.9%
10% -45.3% 30% -35.7%
15% -50.6% 26% -41.9%
20% -55.5% 23% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 116 history records