Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x361d…e11f
crypto · 7 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
−$3 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$1
other 33% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.8% -37.4% 60% 40% -22.3%
≤30d 6 -22.7% -30.0% 67% 50% -21.6%
≤90d 6 -22.7% -30.0% 67% 50% -21.6%
all 6 -22.7% -30.0% 67% 50% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 50% -21.6%
10% -36.7% 17% -29.1%
15% -42.8% 0% -36.0%
20% -48.4% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.02 · official $13.02 (match) · 16 history records