Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x361b…d899 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+7%) realized +$26 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$46
sports 3% −$11
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -55.3% -59.5% 33% 33% +1.6%
≤30d 12 -55.3% -59.5% 33% 33% +1.6%
≤90d 12 -55.3% -59.5% 33% 33% +1.6%
all 12 -55.3% -59.5% 33% 33% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 33% +1.6%
10% -63.4% 17% -8.1%
15% -66.9% 17% -17.0%
20% -70.2% 0% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $71 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $1 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.79 · official $61.79 (match) · 30 history records